As Europe fights desperately to save the coming winter amid the war in Ukraine and growing uncertainty over Russia’s gas supply, some reports put on the table how green hydrogen may already become an alternative even in short term. And it is that the latest reports indicate that imported hydrogen will be cheaper than that produced in Europe in less than two years and may already be a real alternative.
The analysis has been carried out by the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI). An American organization dedicated to research, publication, and advice in the global field of sustainability. This organization presented a study where it is estimated that green hydrogen imported into Europe would cost around 3.75 dollars per kg in 2024, falling to 2 dollars per kg by 2030.
Some figures that would mean a significant difference compared to the projections of green hydrogen prices in Europe for this year, where we can see, for example, the 14.66 dollars per kilo that it costs in one of the cheapest markets, the Netherlands, or the 18.47 in the United Kingdom. United.
The report indicates that to reach the prices of the most competitive markets, Europe will have to wait until 2030. But they also indicate that even by that date, it will continue to be less competitive than the imported ones.
Projections indicate that by 2024, Europe will be able to produce green hydrogen for $4 per kilo. Something that, if confirmed, will be a fatal blow to hydrogen from natural gas, greatly affected by high gas prices.
Based on current 2026 fossil gas and European carbon futures, blue hydrogen production, complete with CO2 capture systems, is expected to cost around $4.60/kg in 2024, almost halving at $2.50/kg by 2030. The situation looks much worse for gray hydrogen, from gas, which is placed in the highest part of prices and which in Europe will be $6.50/kg in 2022, since about 5 dollars/kg in 2024.
Therefore, in the short and medium-term, hydrogen from gas will continue to be more expensive than green.
The report claims that imported green hydrogen could help “break” Europe’s dependence on fossil fuels and, by extension, Russian natural gas, by using it primarily in energy-intensive industries and replacing gray hydrogen used in the fertilizer sector.
The report notes that the adoption of green hydrogen in these sectors could act as a starting point for increased use of hydrogen in heavy industry and shipping, helping to achieve a 76% reduction in natural gas demand. by 2030.
Industrial demand represents only 25% of total gas consumption in Europe, but the report indicates that replacing it with Europe’s energy mix would pave the way for ending dependence on Russian gas once all other sectors have been electrified.
From the Rocky Mountain Institute, they conclude that green hydrogen alone will not be able to break Europe’s energy dependency: « But neither will all the other collective measures that are being considered alone. Aggressive energy efficiency improvements, electrification of transportation, and diversification of sources of imported natural gas will need to be addressed .”